![]() The 2002-03 impact came from the worldwide alarm caused by BSE detections in the UK, followed by Japan, Canada and the US. The most obvious of these were in 2002-03, 20. Historic view of price collapsesĪlso clearly visible on the second graph are a series of extreme young cattle price collapses seen across the Australian beef industry since 2000. The ten-year average for the EYCI, since July, 2012 (capturing all of the ‘modern’ price trend that kicked in during 2015) has been just 590c/kg. In fact the EYCI average for the past five years has been 724.6c/kg – a whopping 215c/kg or 29pc below today’s figure. ![]() This time two years ago, for example, the EYCI sat at 756c (about 190c/kg below today’s figure) and a year before that, 531c/kg (408c/kg behind today’s rate). It shows that even accounting for the recent dramatic decline, the EYCI today remains far, far above anything ever seen before June last year. Now have a look at the second graph published below, plotting the EYCI’s movement since 2000 (22 years). Its shows the current price dipping below where it was this time last year, after a dramatic rise in-between, from December to early June. The graph published above shows the trend over the past 12 months only. Producers are clearly hedging their bets, considering it better to take some cattle off the table and turn them into cash, rather than risking exposing their entire herd to market collapse.īut it’s important to put recent price movements in greater context. ![]() That is significantly reducing production capacity at plants from Victoria all the way into Central Queensland this month.Īdd that to the growing mood to shift cattle as a hedge against market melt-down, should FMD find its way into Australia, and the normal seasonal impact of heavy frosts on pasture condition, and it presents an elevated risk of more severe cattle price damage, unless there is a somewhat orderly approach taken by producers.Īs Beef Central has written a number of times over the past fortnight ( click here to view a recent report on feeder steer price movements), fear and uncertainty over the impact an FMD incursion in Australia would have on the cattle market is now bearing a strong influence on the cattle market, for both store and meatworks-ready cattle. That’s a fall of 14pc.Īnother key factor in the decline of slaughter market pricing in recent months is processors’ reduced capacity to kill stock at present, due to staff sickness caused by COVID and common flu. Four-tooth grass ox that were worth as much as 790c/kg early this year are now making 680c/kg on one company’s grid in southern Queensland. On a typical light backgrounder steer weighing say, 330kg liveweight, that’s a fall of a not insignificant $360.Ī not dissimilar trend has been seen in slaughter cattle over the past seven weeks (see today’s separate weekly kill report). The market for young cattle* (*see definition of cattle eligible for the EYCI below) has now fallen almost 190c/kg carcase weight in the past seven weeks, or 16.4 percent (remember that percentage figure, because it comes into play further below in this item). ANYBODY looking at today’s Eastern Young Cattle Indicator graph, plotting prices for the past 12 months, might assume the world is about to end.Ĭertainly the current sharp correction which set in in early June looks extreme, to say the least.
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